As a pure statement of statistical reality, duh.
As a pure statement of statistical reality, duh. But way to be negative, NPR! That headline sure sounds like they're all gonna lose.
https://www.npr.org/2018/03/20/594096515/the-wave-of-female-candidates-is-set-for-a-wave-of-losses-come-november
https://www.npr.org/2018/03/20/594096515/the-wave-of-female-candidates-is-set-for-a-wave-of-losses-come-november
https://www.npr.org/2018/03/20/594096515/the-wave-of-female-candidates-is-set-for-a-wave-of-losses-come-november
https://www.npr.org/2018/03/20/594096515/the-wave-of-female-candidates-is-set-for-a-wave-of-losses-come-november
bizarre clickbait title, npr. the real meat is here:
ReplyDelete"An NPR analysis shows that the influx of women candidates, beyond being heavily Democratic, features a glut of Democratic women running in races currently considered to be easy Republican wins."
the wave of democrats candidates running in traditionally republican regions is set for a wave of losses. like, maybe? or not.
not a super solid article
After the last few special elections and all the toss-ups from the primaries across the country, I think I'm mostly going to stop paying attention to statistical analysis for the election this year. When we are close enough to have some meaningful poles in races that actually matter to me, I'll check them out, but this isn't much more than a fluff piece this far out.
ReplyDeleteThe whole point of the resistance movement within the democratic party is to fly in the face of statistical power and gain leverage and weight in the areas that need more political voice. Women running is part of that, but minorities of ALL kinds coming forward to make themselves heard is the real core, including statistical ones.
Even the democratic party itself can and will fall to the same weaknesses in their desperation to change the seat of power, but you can't have it both ways. NPR can continue covering the stories that have some journalistic value, but if they are going to apply old trends to new politics for the sake of an inflammatory title, they can keep the peanut gallery comments to themselves.
That's a valid point and a thought I've had - polls and stats based on old models don't seem to be especially reliable anymore, and even worse than the campaigns that run for 2+ years is the pointless speculation for 2+ years.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you both, too, that this was not a great article. Not well done at all.