They got the election wrong; would you trust them with your Thanksgiving dinner?! #toosoon
They got the election wrong; would you trust them with your Thanksgiving dinner?! #toosoon
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ultimate-thanksgiving-dinner-menu/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ultimate-thanksgiving-dinner-menu
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ultimate-thanksgiving-dinner-menu/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ultimate-thanksgiving-dinner-menu
I mean...they were closer than basically anybody else?
ReplyDeleteYeah, 538 was virtually the only modeler who gave Trump any reasonable chance of victory, Why - because Silver was among the only voices worried the high number of undecideds and the volatility of the polls meant the reliability of the polls was low - is even more critical.
ReplyDeleteSilver was getting pilloried for that when guys like Sam Wang were confidently insisting on 90+% win probabilities. Looked at retrospectively, Silvers final calls - about a 25-30 percent win chance for Trump - don't make his win all that surprising. Mildly so, but if in any other part of life you were told you had a 1:4 to 1:3 chance of losing and you lost, you'd shrug. Not like betting on Sam Wangs's 99% certainty.
I knew when I did that, but I was joking :)
ReplyDelete